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Trade barriers start India's solar demand in the second half of 2018 or below 3.5GW

Number of clicks:952018-07-26 22:20:30 source: Guangdong Sinpo New Materials Co.,Ltd

Polaris Solar PV News: The Ministry of Finance announced on July 30 local time that it will launch a 25% protective tariff (Safeguard), fully adopting the recommendations of the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). . The purpose of this tax is obviously to protect local production capacity. However, under the condition that the quality, scale and price of domestic production capacity in India are behind the global market, the market demand in the second half of 2018 will be negatively affected. It is expected that the whole year will be 2018. The demand is only 8.5~9.6GW.


Indian Ministry of Commerce Announcement No.01/2018-Customs(SG), announcing the tax number 85414011 (solar cell, whether packaged in modules or not) will be based on the findings of the DGTR announcement on July 16th, July 30, 2018 A two-year protective tariff is imposed on the day. The tariff related programs are as follows:


India's solar grid connection in 2017 was 8.04GW, and the grid connection volume in the fiscal year 2017 (note: beginning in April and ending in March of the following year) was 10.03GW, and the grid connection volume in the first half of 2018 was 5.97GW. According to the gold-level database of EnergyTrend of Jibang New Energy Network, the distribution of component capacity in five countries including India, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam is shown in the following table:

According to customs data, China's exports to India reached 3.59 GW in 2018, and battery exports exceeded 700 MW. Although China's component exports to India in the first half of 2018 were down 8% from the same period in 2017, India's dependence on China is still very high (Figure 1).


Indian market demand analysis

This tariff is to protect India's domestic production capacity, but because the supply chain has continued to decline after the 531 New Deal in China, and China's overcapacity needs to go to the sea, so that China's components will still have in the Indian market even with a 25% tariff. Competitiveness has weakened the protection of tariffs. On the other hand, India's local production capacity is not only insufficient, it is still difficult to compete with the international market in terms of cost, efficiency and quality.

Therefore, the 25% tariff will actually put pressure on the EPC and developers to increase costs, but instead impact on India. Market demand.India has been connected to the grid by about 24GW by the end of June. In order to achieve the goal of 100 GW in 2020, approximately 40 GW of solar power station bids have been completed from 2017 to the end of June 2018, of which approximately 11.1 GW has been auctioned (Figure 2).

According to the plan of the Ministry of New Energy and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of India, 30GW bids will be completed in the 2018 and 2019 fiscal years respectively, and the grid connection will be achieved by 2022 years ago. However, the 25% tariff will directly affect India's market demand in the second half of 2018. India is facing environmental stagnation of electricity demand, financial controls and other environmental bad, tariffs will worsen this situation, demand is expected to shrink to 2.4~3.5GW in the second half of 2018, and demand is expected to fall between 8.5~9.6GW in 2018. 1Q19 is expected to continue the same atmosphere and lead to a 30% year-on-year decline in FY1818 compared to FY17 (Figure 3).

   

Although the Indian government intends to promote 5GW of polysilicon to component local capacity through policies, the progress is not good. In the case of a delay in new production capacity and the fact that both production capacity cannot meet international production capacity in all aspects, the two-year protective tariff will only increase the development cost of the power station.


International market interaction

Whether the EU double-reverse and MIP due to expire on September 3 is expected to be extended will have a linkage effect with India's protective tariffs:

Due to the influence of the 531 New Deal in China, the 2018 is expected to be quite weak in the second half of the year. Only the 5~6.5GW front runners and the 4.186GW poverty alleviation target are clear requirements. Excess production capacity is bound to continue to attack all possible markets, including price cuts in India, or look at Europe, Australia, Mexico, North Africa and other markets with obvious demand growth in 2018. Under the trend of weakening demand in China and India, the market situation of weaker market conditions is expected to continue into the first half of 2019, and the international layout actions and price wars of various manufacturers may continue.




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