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The photovoltaic industry is officially “weaned”, and the overseas market may become a “safe haven”.

Number of clicks:662018-08-01 11:48:03 source: Guangdong Sinpo New Materials Co.,Ltd

Facts have proved that the foreign moon is no better than the Chinese circle, and JA Solar has also embarked on the road of “returning home” from the United States.

On July 23, Tianye Tonglian announced its asset restructuring plan, and the photovoltaic giant Jingao Solar wanted to use the Tianye Tonglian A-share listing. If Jingao Solar is successful, it will become the first Chinese PV company to return to the A-share market.

At this point, just two months after the implementation of the PV New Deal, JA Solar has rushed back or has indicated the pressure of financing. Under the cold wave, even the photovoltaic giants urgently need the capital market to “transfusion”. For the entire industry, many Chinese PV companies that have been relying on subsidies are more rugged ahead.

Sancheng enterprises are expected to decline in performance, and component companies are in a difficult situation

Although the New Deal was issued only two months ago, some domestic PV companies have been affected. Judging from the semi-annual report of 28 listed PV listed companies (including PV involved in China), more than 30% of enterprises have experienced a decline in performance. Among them, the net profit of sunflower, Maoshuo Power, and Weiwei shares decreased by 1294.48%, 88.92% and 75.01% respectively.

The financial network further analyzed the 10 companies whose profits are expected to decline. Three of the top five companies with net profit declines were PV module companies, including Sunflower, Weiwei and Dongfang Risheng.
Because PV modules have the lowest technical barriers in the entire industry chain, it seems that the impact of the New Deal is the biggest. It is reported that sunflowers, which have been engaged in the production of photovoltaic modules for many years, are expected to lose 118 million yuan in the first half of 2018, down 1294.48% from the same period of the previous year. The company's response was affected by the policy. The demand for domestic PV products decreased, the revenue dropped sharply, the sales price dropped sharply, and the gross profit margin decreased. However, the related period expenses did not decrease.

According to statistics, there are nearly 200 component factories in China, and the production of components has already been oversupplied. Photovoltaic expert Wang Shujuan believes that after the New Deal is issued, the new installed capacity in 2018 is expected to be lowered to 25GW, down 52% year-on-year, far lower than previous market estimates. In other words, the New Deal was issued to reduce the demand for domestic PV products this year to a freezing point.


The New Deal detonated overcapacity and financing difficulties

According to public information, China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation has been the world's number one for five consecutive years. The cumulative installed capacity has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years. China's solar module production in 2011 has accounted for 60% of world production. In the past few years, the photovoltaic industry has grown geometrically.


However, only when the tide recedes will you know who is swimming naked. After the issuance of the "531 New Deal", the sinking of the industry's barbaric growth has gradually emerged. The most prominent of these is that the supply and demand relationship in the photovoltaic industry has become more tense.


     

After the release of the New Deal, it immediately intensified the inherent overcapacity problem of the industry and the sharp drop in market demand, and the price of photovoltaic products dipped. In June, solar cells fell by 17.33%, and solar modules fell by 4.37%. The photovoltaic giants represented by Longji and Zhonghuan have announced that they will cut the price of silicon wafers and seize the few wafer markets. The other wafer manufacturers have to follow up, resulting in the continuous decline of wafer prices. The price of crystalline silicon wafers has dropped by more than 30%. Despite the frequent price cuts, the effect is not satisfactory.

According to the research institute EnergyTrend, after the New Deal was issued, many manufacturers did not hesitate to sell the products at the cost price, but the downstream willingness to trade was still weak.At the same time, the New Deal "cut a knife" cut off the size of the majority of installed capacity, so that the industry's excess capacity is nowhere to be placed. Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the average utilization rate of silicon wafers, batteries and modules is expected to fall to 66.5%, 57.8% and 47.6% respectively in 2018.On the other hand, the subsidy granted by the New Deal has fallen sharply, which has led to a sharp increase in the financing needs of capital-intensive PV companies. In order to maintain the cash flow of enterprises, some leading enterprises are also in urgent need of "slimming" and break their arms.


Coincidentally, on June 27, Kelu Electronics also announced that it would transfer its Ningxia Xuning New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to Dongfang Risheng (Ningbo) Power Development Co., Ltd. at a price of 270 million yuan. Subsequently, the photovoltaic giant Longji shares also began to sell assets, the company sold its 17 distributed photovoltaic project companies to Zhejiang Zhengtai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. at a price of 703 million, which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company Zhengtai Electric.

Overseas markets or become "safe havens"

The "531 New Deal" is called "the most stringent in history" because the New Deal has reduced the scale of distributed PV. According to the construction progress in the first half of the year, the 10GW indicator is running low.The sudden decrease in downstream installed capacity directly affects the inventory digestibility of PV products in the upper and middle reaches. The photovoltaic industry chain has been arranged into a series of dominoes connected end to end. While many companies are still "mourning", some companies have turned their sales markets overseas, perfectly avoiding the New Deal.

Further analysis of the semi-annual report shows that the profitable PV listed companies have found that companies with overseas layout capabilities have not received too much impact.

For example, Aikang Technology is expected to make a profit of 70 million yuan in the first half of 2018, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%. Aikang Technology said that the company's photovoltaic components manufacturing, and the business direction is mainly export sales, business has not been affected by the "531 New Deal." GCL integration is also the focus of the company's strategic layout in advance, and has not been affected by the New Deal turmoil. It is estimated that the profit will be 20.41 million yuan to 30.02 million yuan.

For the time being, actively exploring overseas markets may lead photovoltaic companies out of the dilemma. The leading component of photovoltaic modules, Jingke Energy, has locked the major assembly orders overseas this year, ensuring that the company can maintain a high number of orders in the event of a reduction in the size of the New Deal.Focusing on the overseas PV market, even if the Chinese market shrinks, Solar Power Europe, GTM Research, Energy Trend, IHS and other institutions predict that the total installed capacity in the world will remain at around 100GW in 2018.

 For example, India's domestic downstream demand is high, the Indian government plans to achieve 100GW installed capacity by 2022, and the European market has gradually released some local projects, and it is estimated that the new installed capacity will be 11GW in 2018. There is still a huge market for the foreign PV industry, and the exchange rate at this time is obviously beneficial to the export of enterprises.

For the issuance of this new policy, many people in the industry believe that this will become an opportunity for the industry to reshuffle and self-rescue. The technological advantages and cost advantages of leading companies in the industry will be highlighted under the baptism of the New Deal. The photovoltaic industry will also Stabilization will lead to a long-term steady development momentum.

After the dark, before the dawn, the photovoltaic enterprises that lost the "baby bottle", under the test of market rules, will actually move toward "adult".























The last one:Overseas construction has become the preferred strategy for Chinese PV companies